Trump Won’t be the Republican Nominee (And Neither will Ben Carson)

The calm extremism of Carson and the rabid pomposity of Trump will flare out in the next few months.

by Jesse Mechanic

A national poll released by CBS/New York Times yesterday showed Ben Carson as the new front-runner in the republican presidential primary.  Carson had been nipping at Trump’s heels for some time now, and these new numbers may signal the beginning of the end for the former Apprentice star.

Carson is the anti-Trump in terms of energy and vibrancy.  Regardless of what you think of Donald Trump, he commands a room—he is passionate, loud and intense, always.  In contrast, Carson is almost comedically reserved, his voice a steady, high, monotonous drone that squeakily meanders through sentences.  Words propel from Trump’s mouth backed by fire, Carson’s gently slide out and pile up on the podium.  Carson’s voice has a distinctly narcoleptic quality to it—he is the Ambien of GOP hopefuls.  Even still, people like him.  But it’s harder to understand why they like him, he’s had more gaffes that any other candidate, his flat tax proposal is ludicrous, and even the extreme things he says are delivered with the charisma of a bag of sand.  Regardless, Carson is the current leader which must mean he has a good shot at winning the primary right?  No, not at all.

Neither Ben Carson nor Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for president.  Their early success is just that, early success.  It’s success driven by a majority of the fringe and a subsection of the populous.  Carson and Trump are appealing because between the two of them they have a sum-total of zero hours of Government experience.  They’re the sexy outsiders.  Neither has ever held public office; they don’t know much of anything about politics and this is apparently not terrifying but exciting!  The former party of the status quo seems to be anything but recently.  Those who are enamored by the outsiders—those with leather jackets slung lazily over their shoulders as they strut the political perimeter are  loving this new blood. But it will flare out.

Things will reach a point, soon, where the more rational and measured republican voters will begin to pay more attention and have a voice.  When this happens, the candidates that are qualified will move to the forefront.  The whole rogue outsider idea is fun in theory, but in its real world application, not so much.  The reality is both of these men are laughably underqualified for this job, and this will become more evident as the primaries approach and candidates are forced to explain and not just yell or mumble about their bombastic plans.

It is a two man race at this point, but neither of those men are Trump or Carson.  It will come down to Bush or Rubio. The candidate that can gain the trust of the public and mount a surge in the next few months will take the nomination.  It’s pretty much a toss up, but if I had to put money down, I would reluctantly put it on Rubio.

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