New York Takes New Hampshire

Sanders and Trump are big winners in The Granite State primary. 

As was predicted, the two outsider candidates, pushing against the establishment from opposing angles, proved themselves as true contenders in tonight’s primary.  Sanders and Trump both held significant leads in New Hampshire for months, but anything can happen in a primary, especially with how fractured and unpredictable the GOP has become.  But tonight, the predictions and polls held up, and the outsiders put a stamp on their legitimacy.

All the numbers aren’t in yet, but as of right now Trump holds 34% of the vote with John Kasich garnering a far lower -but still impressive- 16%.  Sanders is currently at 59% compared to Clinton’s 39%.  Both of these margins of victory are rather enormous.  Sanders and Trump individually received nearly 25,000 more votes than the projected second-place finisher in each party.

It’s also worth noting that  Trump’s vote total currently sits at 45,959 while Sanders is at 73,627.  This is a large disparity between the two winers, but a predictable one.  Trump had to split the vote with seven other candidates while Sanders only had to split with one.  Moreover, New Hampshire has voted democrat in five of the last seven presidential elections, and it’s right next door to Sanders’ home state of Vermont.  So it would stand to reason that more dems and Bernie supporters would show up in NH.

So what does this mean?  Well, as we said after Iowa, it could mean everything, or it could mean nothing.  This may signal a shift in the collective consciousness of the democratic base towards Sanders, or the electorate may still shake out the same way many predicted it would, giving Clinton a narrow but clear victory.  As for Trump, things are even less certain.  He needed New Hampshire to prove he is a realistic threat and he won it soundly.  But Trump may struggle in South Carolina, Nevada and Alabama and it’s still very unclear if the Donald has the staying power to weather a few electoral beatdowns.  And New Hampshire’s results are unlikely to end too many campaigns moving forward, so the votes on the GOP side are still likely to be split at least five ways for another two weeks.  And a brokered republican convention still seems very much in play.

Iowa set the stage for a primary race unlike any we’ve ever seen, and New Hampshire marked the map with indelible ink.

Two men from different boroughs of New York City, Donald Trump from Queens, and Bernie Sanders from Brooklyn, made history tonight in New Hampshire.   Whether their victories are anomalies or predictors remains to be seen, but they’ve successfully tapped into the collective frustration of the voting public and have been rewarded handsomely for it.

On to South Carolina.

 

by Jesse Mechanic

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